IWSR US Navigator Data: Seasonality Trends Reveal Opportunities for US Wine Market

While overall wine volumes for the US are in structural decline, trends are nuanced by state, price tier and seasonality, according to data from IWSR US Navigator, the industry’s only monthly data source for the total US beverage alcohol market, by price tier, for every state going back to 2019.

Total wine consumption is nuanced by state:

New York State is a popular target for wine-producers, and rightly so as it over-indexes on wine consumption vs. the national average with a Consumption Index of ~113 (meaning it consumes 13% more wine than the national average).

By contrast, neighbouring Pennsylvania and nearby Ohio have indices of only 75 and 68, meaning they drink 25% and 32% less than the national average.

“This is not surprising and would suggest that wine producers continue to focus on NY over states such as OH or PN, but where it starts to get interesting is when we begin to partition this by price tier and then consider seasonality,” comments Marten Lodewijks, President of the US Division at IWSR. “This surfaces opportunities for wine producers operating in or expanding into the US.”

Taking this analysis further:

• New York wine volume skews massively to the Standard price tier (index of 168) and actually under-indexes in Premium at only 80.
• Conversely, Ohio’s Premium index jumps up from 68 for total wine to 87 for Premium wine and Pennsylvania Ultra-Premium wine does extremely well at 155, suggesting these markets ‘punch-above-their-weight’ in more expensive price tiers.

To contextualise this:

• Premium wine commanded 39% volume share of Ohio’s total wine market, versus a 22% share of New York State in 2023.
• Therefore, while the total wine market in Ohio is only 35% the size of New York State, the Ohio Premium wine market is 64% the size of New York State’s Premium wine market, making it a much more attractive target for premium winemakers who might otherwise overlook the state based on its overall consumption index at the national level.

The seasonality effect is even more critical:

• In New York State, the seasonality of Premium wine mirrors that of Standard, meaning that when consumption goes up (e.g. over the holiday period), Standard and Premium wine move proportionally in the same direction, and Premium wine does not gain share.
• In Ohio, however, Premium wine outperforms Standard wine over the critical holiday season of November and December with monthly sales of Premium exceeding that of Standard wine.
• In Pennsylvania, the same is true at an even higher price tier, with Super-Premium wine outperforming Premium wine in this time period, albeit off a smaller base.

What this means:

Looking at regional performance in conjunction with price tier performance and overlaying seasonality can reveal key opportunity areas for brand owners.

“These nuances can be easily missed if only looking at top level category performance,” notes Lodewijks. “Some states may not instinctively seem very appealing, but when considered more granularly, distribution in seemingly less attractive markets can unlock material growth for a brand portfolio. Adding a seasonality lens can help with resource allocation and forward planning to ensure brand-owners maximise their returns over peak seasons.”

IWSR US Navigator is now available to subscribing clients. For further information or to gain access to US Navigator, please email enquiries@theiwsr.com. Current IWSR clients can contact their IWSR Account Manager.