Five key trends defining opportunities in the global wine market in 2025

The outlook for global wine volumes remains largely negative, with continued consumption declines and an ageing consumer base – but, despite ongoing economic difficulties, opportunities remain to meet the needs of the next generation of more involved, adventurous consumers.

According to the Global Wine Trends Executive Summary 2024 report, newly published by IWSR, the global leader in beverage alcohol data and insights, wine volumes in most key markets will continue to decline in the next few years.

“For wine, the battle to recruit younger legal drinking age drinkers in sufficient numbers is intensifying, as many mature markets become increasingly reliant on older generations to shift the volume,” says Richard Halstead, Chief Operating Officer Consumer Insights and Custom Analytics. “Experienced drinkers are loyal, but less involved with the category, and lower spending than younger drinkers.

“Meanwhile, in the wider world, multiple headwinds are restricting spend on alcohol, be it active moderation, economic worries, or simply the reduction in the number of beverage alcohol consumption opportunities for wider lifestyle or cultural reasons.”

However, opportunities remain. Millennial consumers – those now in their late 20s through to early 40s – tend to be more highly involved in wine, have more experimental tastes and are happy to spend more on a bottle or a drink in a bar at a time when older consumers are cutting back on spend. They are willing to explore a broader range of retail channels, and are attracted to brands, story-telling and experiences that reflect their lifestyles.

Meanwhile, as governments increasingly prioritise action on climate change and excessive alcohol consumption, opportunities are created for for no-/low-alcohol, natural, organic and sustainable wines.

“Structural threats to the wine industry persist,” says Richard. “However, despite this largely pessimistic outlook, there remains plenty of potential for wine to innovate and harness opportunities in this challenging new landscape.”

IWSR has identified five key trends set to shape the global wine market in 2025 and beyond:

Demographic challenges

The number of wine drinkers in key global markets rebounded following the Covid-19 pandemic, but – despite adult population growth – has been declining since, falling by 5m people between 2021 and 2024, according to IWSR data. In the US, the number of adults in the total population has increased by 9.5m since 2022 – but the number of monthly wine drinkers has risen by only 500,000.

As people enter the category at a slower rate, older drinkers now constitute the largest age group in many mature markets, with over-55s accounting for almost 50% of wine drinkers in key markets such as the UK, France, Portugal and Belgium.

“We have an emerging paradox in wine, where we are missing a chunk of recruits we would normally expect from younger generations, but those younger consumers we are recruiting are typically much more involved and higher spending,” says Richard Halstead. “Meanwhile the bulk of volume sold is to Boomers (over-60s), who constitute the majority of drinkers, and tend to report lower levels of involvement than younger drinkers.

“The silver lining in all this for wine is that involvement levels in the category are actually rising as more enthusiastic younger legal drinking age (LDA) drinkers replace less involved consumers.”

The moderation trend

As wine drinkers become increasingly mindful of their consumption patterns, sales volumes are declining in all of the world’s top 10 wine markets, according to IWSR data. In China, still wine volumes fell by almost 100m cases between 2018 and 2023. Although the sharpest declines appear to have passed, this negative trend is expected to continue.

Moderation is largely driven by health concerns, but IWSR consumer research also highlights financial worries: while 40% of people across IWSR’s 17 Landscapes markets said they were drinking less wine because of a general reduction in their alcohol intake, 28% said they were aiming to reduce their expenditure on wine, and 23% said they were drinking less because wine had become more expensive.

In the top 10 global wine markets, 80-90% of consumers who have reduced their wine intake say they expect to maintain this or reduce it further. “Many wine drinkers who are moderating report little intention to return to previous consumption levels, even if their motivations are seemingly short-term,” explains Richard Halstead. “Moderation is likely to beget more moderation, as the old cultural norms around consuming alcohol to fit in start to disintegrate.”

Financial pressures

The recent decline in wine consumption has been skewed to the lower end of the price spectrum: global sales volumes of wine priced at value level or below fell by 27% between 2021 and 2023, according to IWSR data. This looks likely to continue, with IWSR forecasts predicting growth only in premium-and-above price tiers between 2025 and 2027.

This is mirrored by a decline in the population of wine drinkers at lower income levels, with some of these drinkers opting out of alcohol altogether for economic reasons. The remaining wine drinkers remain mostly optimistic about their finances – but, as they pay more for wine, they are considering a larger number of cues to purchase.

“In particular, people are looking to get more from the information and cues they are getting from the bottle and putting more emphasis on recommendations, to ensure that their purchases are worth the bigger level of investment,” says Halstead.

Innovation opportunities

Despite the gloom, there are innovation opportunities. No/low wines have enjoyed strong growth – from a low base – as the moderation trend takes root, with no-alcohol sparkling the biggest segment, but low-alcohol still wines the fastest-growing as producers innovate and quality improves.

According to IWSR data, no/low sparkling wine accounts for 70% of global no/low wine volumes – while low-alcohol still wine grew at a CAGR of +22% between 2018 and 2023, and is predicted to expand at a CAGR of +15% between 2023 and 2028.

Alternative wines – organic, sustainable and natural – are gaining in appeal thanks to their minimal additives and environmental credentials, but are also viewed as more expensive, according to IWSR consumer research. Organic wine enjoys the highest levels of awareness, although volumes are mainly concentrated in Germany, France and the UK.

“As the wine industry adapts to climate change and is affected by more extreme weather events, wine producers are looking for ways to reduce their climate impact, and making sustainability part of their brand presents an opportunity to connect with the values of younger drinkers,” says Richard Halstead. “However, Gen Zs of legal drinking age and Millennials are sensitive to ‘greenwashing’ and will look for products where eco credentials are integral to a brand’s identity, not an afterthought or an add-on.”

Valuable Millennials

Younger generations may not be entering the wine category at the same rate as previously, but Millennials will represent a highly valuable market segment as they enter their prime earning years. They are highly involved in the wine category, and report drinking more at a time when the average drinker is cutting their consumption, in key markets such as Australia Brazil, France, India, the UK and the US.

“Millennials who drink wine regularly report buying more expensive wine than the average for the market as a whole,” adds Richard. “Attracting more of these consumers into wine – and hanging on to the ones already there – will be an important future driver of value in the category.”

Millennials also consume a higher-than-average number of different grape varieties across key markets, IWSR consumer research indicates. “Millennials also experiment with a wider range of beverages, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for a brand owner looking for loyal customers,” points out Richard.

“They frequent more wine-buying channels, giving extra opportunities for engagement, such as personalised experiences and storytelling to build awareness and loyalty; and local points of engagement, including pop-up events, wine dinners and wine clubs.”