IWSR preliminary data highlights growth spots despite another tough year in 2024

Beverage alcohol fell short of forecasted expectations in 2024 as key markets around the world underperformed, impacted by a move away from super-premium spirits, ongoing weakness in the Chinese market and wine’s long-term structural decline.

Total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes across the world’s top 20 markets declined by -1% versus 2023, according to preliminary figures compiled by IWSR, the global authority on beverage alcohol data and intelligence.

This means that TBA volumes are now -2% lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019. Over that timescale, spirits (excluding national spirits) and RTDs are the only categories to have experienced growth, with beer volumes -2% lower and wine declining by -21%.

The top 20 markets combined fell short of their forecast alcohol volumes by 1%–2% in 2024, which equates to more than 300m nine-litre cases. The US, China, India and Europe all underperformed on this measure.

“On-trade closures and economic weakness prompted a -4% downturn in China TBA volumes last year, hitting the global market for beer, Cognac and, to a lesser extent, Scotch,” says Emily Neill, Chief Operating Officer Research and Operations, IWSR. “A vibrant Indian market had been expected to partially offset some of these losses. But, while the country certainly posted better results than elsewhere, its performance was nonetheless below expectations.”

Generally speaking, there was a noticeable dichotomy between a more positive performance in emerging economies and declines in mature markets: while Brazil, South Africa, India and Mexico all enjoyed notable growth, the US and China experienced marked declines.

On the macroeconomic front, while inflation has largely been reined in across developed markets, soft GDP growth and persistently high living costs are having a depressing effect on disposable incomes.

Bright spots included the performance of beer in some developing markets and generally buoyant sales of premium beer, while the RTD category remained on an upward trajectory, despite the ongoing contraction of hard seltzers.

Meanwhile, agave spirits continue to expand, despite losing momentum in their US and Mexican heartlands, and Indian whisky fared well, with the emerging single malt segment making big gains in its home market. The spritz is helping to elevate aperitifs and Prosecco with the emergence of the early evening as a key consumption occasion.

The moderation trend that is negatively impacting the intensity and frequency of alcohol consumption also provides greater opportunities for no-alcohol and lighter alternatives, with the no-alcohol spirits category continuing to see strong growth across the top 20 markets, outpacing full-strength spirits while still only accounting for a small share of spirits as a whole.

“Despite some glimmers of hope, the low points were more evident than the positives during 2024,” says Neill. “The shift away from super-premium-plus spirits, the ongoing economic weakness in China depressing demand, and the continued plight of wines in key markets all combined to mean that the alcohol category failed to meet modest expectations last year.

“What is more, 2025 looks set to bring choppier waters, with the sector on the front line of a trade war. The outlook remains unpredictable for the year as the threat of tit-for-tat tariffs could potentially trigger dramatic shifts in alcohol choices.”

Other key findings from IWSR’s preliminary data for 2024 include:

Premiumisation stalls amid consumer caution

Premiumisation offered a boost to the beer category in 2024, but the trend was noticeably softer in wine – and appeared to go into reverse for spirits as consumers increasingly sought the best value for their money.

Excluding national products, volumes of super-premium-plus spirits declined by more than -3% last year, while the value price tier grew marginally. Exceptions to this rule included agave, where the value segment declined as premium products grew modestly, and high-end Indian whisky.

Wine’s decline was less pronounced in the premium and super-premium-plus segments, but beer proved to be one of the main beneficiaries of the weak economic backdrop in many markets, with some consumers switching from wine and spirits in search of more affordable options. As such, volumes of premium-plus beer grew, while the value price band fell by nearly -3%.

“The post-pandemic consumer squeeze has inevitably resulted in a softening of the premiumisation trend, with any market value gains more related to price rises than consumer choices,” explains Emily Neill.

“Champagne, Cognac and malt Scotch results are a good barometer to gauge the economic climate, and the deteriorating demand for these products in 2024 illustrates the cautious nature of today’s consumer.”

Spirits hit by losses in the US, China and Europe

While total spirits volumes declined by -3% across the top 20 markets in 2024, this figure is skewed by the long-term decline in national spirits (such as baijiu in China and shochu in Japan). Stripping these products out of the data, spirits declined by less than -1% – the best category performance after RTDs and cider.

Sales were heavily impacted by a -4% volume fall in the key US market, where agave was the only major category to grow, and volume losses across most of Western Europe and Latin America, as well as China, where the market was depressed by a weak economic outlook and low consumer sentiment.

China’s woes were partly mitigated by growth in several other APAC countries, especially India and the Philippines. Only five of the top 20 markets – India, Russia, the Philippines, Japan and Thailand – recorded an increase in international spirits volumes in 2024, with India adding the most absolute volume and the Philippines showing the highest percentage growth.

“Excluding national products, the spirits category outperformed wine and beer, but most volume growth was localised, derived from entry-level Indian whisky in its home market and value gin in the Philippines,” says Neill.

“The super-premium-and-above segment experienced the largest volume decline at -3% as consumers cut back on luxuries and traded down. Weak sentiment pervaded among even the most affluent of buyers.”

Wine’s woes persist despite Spain’s promise

Wine volumes fell by -4% across the top 20 markets in 2024, dragged down by significant drops in influential markets such as the US, the UK, France and Germany. China too recorded a sizeable decline, despite the lifting of punitive tariffs on imports of Australian wine.

“Wine did see some bright spots of growth in some smaller, less traditional markets, but it is growth in Spain, especially in still wines, that provides some encouragement,” says Neill. “Here, competitive pricing is winning over drinkers, reflected in the rise at the value end of the market.”

Global consumption of Prosecco also increased, boosted by its attractive price point at a time of austerity, and a consequent consumption shift from Champagne. Prosecco is also benefitting from the increasingly fashionable early evening drinking occasion, where it is consumed on its own or as the base ingredient of a spritz.

Beer’s mixed year as RTDs continue to grow

Beer’s volume decline of -1% across the top 20 markets in 2024 was largely the consequence of a downturn in China, and disguises a return to growth in key markets including Brazil and Mexico, as well as an improved performance in Europe.

As global brewers rapidly premiumise their portfolios, the move is reaping dividends, illustrated by share gains by premium and super-premium beers from the standard and value segments last year.

RTDs posted a volume gain of +2% in 2024, with all of the top 20 markets expanding, except for Australia, China, India and the UK. “The RTD category is a broad church of segments, concepts and products, with varied results for the year,” explains Neill. “Overall, though the category has recorded another year of expansion.

“RTDs in 2024 have again been a focus of considerable activity from brewers looking beyond beer, as well as diversification from wine and spirits players, and collaborations between spirits franchises and soft drinks brands.”

How IWSR can help

At such uncertain times, IWSR’s data and insights are aimed to help brand owners to navigate fast-changing trends and developments across the world’s beverage alcohol markets. 

In May, alongside the annual Global Database release, IWSR will be launching a new 10-year Forecasting Tool which incorporates industry and macroeconomic drivers and On-Trade Value, the only data source covering the top 20 markets by category, price segment and venue type for the beverage alcohol on-trade sector. IWSR’s consumer data product Bevtrac and the market deep dive via US Navigator offer an additional angle.