Turning to the dark side: the surprising rise of stout

Stout is defying gravity in a lacklustre UK beer market, enjoying a notable upswing since the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to a combination of attention-grabbing publicity moments and the attraction of a broader demographic.

The revival has been fuelled by widespread media reporting of a shortage of leading brand Guinness in the run-up to Christmas 2024, on the back of months of soaring sales, celebrity associations and viral memes on Instagram and other platforms.

According to IWSR, the global authority on beverage alcohol data and intelligence, stout volumes in the UK – the segment’s leading global market – grew by +24% between 2019 and 2023, and by +12% in 2023 alone.

This surge offers a strong contrast with overall beer trends in the UK, with volumes falling by -6% between 2019 and 2023. Stout, premium-plus world lager and no-alcohol beer, are currently the only significant growth drivers in the market.

IWSR forecasts originally predicted a +6% volume gain for stout in 2024, but these figures are likely to be upgraded when the final statistics are unveiled in a few months’ time. The segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of +2% between 2023 and 2028, again bucking the negative trend for the broader beer category, which is expected to shrink at a CAGR of -1% over the same timescale.

What’s causing this surge in popularity for stout? Patrick Fisher, senior analyst, UK & Ireland, IWSR, has pinpointed several key factors:

• A broader demographic: As younger LDA+ consumers have returned to the on-premise following the Covid-19 pandemic, there have been signs of them moving away from spirits to longer alcoholic drinks (LADs), including stout. “The key thing here is that stout is attracting a wider audience now,” points out Fisher. “In the past, it might have been considered a more traditional drink for older people. Now younger legal-drinking age people are getting into it, and female consumers. It’s attracting a broader demographic.”
• Going viral: As well as the shortage of Guinness garnering plenty of media headlines, celebrities and memes have significantly raised the public profile of stout. This includes Kim Kardashian being seen drinking stout in a London pub, and singer Olivia Rodrigo wearing a Guinness T-shirt on stage in Dublin. Meanwhile, Instagram-friendly trends include “splitting the G” – where drinkers try to position the line between the foam and the stout in the middle of the letter G on a pint of Guinness after their first sip – and the “baby Guinness” trend, referring to a cocktail shot containing coffee liqueur topped by cream liqueur, mimicking a tiny pint of stout. “All of these Instagrammable associations with stout have really helped the trend to develop,” says Fisher. “Stout also benefits from having a strong visual identity – rather like rosé wine and spritz cocktails.”
• Piggybacking no-alcohol: The growth of no-alcohol has also benefitted stout. Brewers large and small have launched no-alc variants in an effort to exploit the trend. “No-alcohol stout is part of the separate no-alcohol beer category, so its numbers are not included in our stout volume numbers,” explains Fisher. “But it all contributes to the brands and the category. Also, the halo effect from no-alcohol stout appears to be recruiting younger LDA+ drinkers to the category, as they are more likely to drink no-alcohol.”
• Category exploration: There are signs that rising levels of interest in the segment, plus the much-publicised Guinness shortage, are encouraging drinkers to be more experimental and to try a diverse mix of different stout brands. “It seems that stout drinkers are now trying other brands, which may have felt the benefit of this,” says Fisher. “In turn, brewers have reacted to this growing interest by innovating and bringing out new products.”

The surge of stout is most pronounced in the UK, although there are reports of similar trends coming into play in Ireland and further afield. “Our current research cycle investigations are showing stout to be gaining more prominence in other markets, than it had previously.” says Fisher. “But the growth figures are definitely more impressive in the UK and Ireland.”

The question now is whether the recent growth of stout in the UK has the required momentum to continue in the longer term, or whether this surge is a more short-lived phenomenon. While growth is expected to continue in the immediate future, it remains to be seen whether stout’s golden period will persist in the years ahead.